The Nexus of Climate and Conflict

Gabriel Lagrange, Director of the Geopolitics of Climate Change Department at the Institute for Applied Geopolitical Studies, spoke with Harriet Mackaill-Hill, responsible for leading our advocacy work on climate and conflict. She advocates for the link between climate and conflict to be part of the international agenda and for the urgent need for a conflict-sensitive lens to be applied to climate action and finance. Prior to joining International Alert, she worked in Brussels for Greenpeace EU and the Climate Action Network Europe, working on climate ambition, litigation and governance.

Gabriel Lagrange - How does climate change intersect with conflict dynamics?

Harriet Mackaill-Hill - There is no direct link between climate and conflict because climate is never the sole factor responsible for conflict. However, climate change increases the probabilities of conflict and interacts significantly with food security, human security, and competition over natural resources. For example, our work in Northern Kenya shows that communities are facing more extreme weather events (droughts, floods) leading to a loss of grazing land. This forces communities to move their cattle to other areas already occupied by other groups, who are themselves struggling with scarce resources. This situation can trigger or exacerbate conflicts due to heightened competition over shared resources.

Climate change increases the probabilities of conflict and interacts significantly with food security, human security, and competition over natural resources.

Obviously, the relationship between climate change and conflict is a two-way street. If there is more conflict, there is less time and capacity to adapt to climate impacts. Also, during conflicts, addressing climate issues is far from being a priority.

Gabriel Lagrange - The COPs were created to respond first and foremost to climatic and environmental issues through different tracks such as mitigation and adaptation. Why does a peacebuilding organization like yours take an interest in COPs?

Harriet Mackaill-Hill - Peace and conflict are not part of the UNFCCC's official agenda, which focuses mainly on adaptation and mitigation. However, we know that climate finance is not reaching conflict-affected countries. For instance, less than 1% of total adaptation flows reach conflict-affected areas. Another interesting figure is that 75% of climate-vulnerable countries are also at risk of or experiencing conflict.

Less than 1% of total adaptation flows reach conflict-affected areas. Another interesting figure is that 75% of climate-vulnerable countries are also at risk of or experiencing conflict.

At COPs, we want negotiators to remember this. To ensure that the most vulnerable people take center stage and that no one is left behind, it is crucial to integrate conflict sensitivity within climate actions and finance.

Gabriel Lagrange - Conflicts are primarily addressed by the UN Security Council (UNSC). If the UNSC increasingly incorporates environmental issues into its discussions, this forum seems stuck, as evidenced by the 2021 veto and lack of substantial progress since then. Are COPs alternative forums to the UNSC? What advantages do COPs offer compared to the UNSC?

Harriet Mackaill-Hill - I think the UN Security Council can play a huge role in climate security, especially through its Groups of Friends (GoF). However, some states are willing to address climate security through the GoF within the UNSC but not within the UNFCCC. This is mainly because they view COPs as finance gatherings. Countries are reluctant to openly declare themselves fragile or conflict-affected, as this might disincentivize investments due to risk-averse donor behavior.

That said, I believe we need to bridge the gap between the UNSC and UNFCCC to stop working in silos. It makes sense to increase collaboration. For example, COP discussions that may seem unrelated often address interconnected issues. This year's big topic is finance, particularly the establishment of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance. Within the NCQG, negotiators will address adaptation finance. Next year, they will negotiate a global goal on adaptation, which will influence National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). Despite appearing as isolated discussions, everything is linked. It's crucial that vulnerability to both conflict and climate be mainstreamed in these discussions.

Gabriel Lagrange - You have already pointed out some barriers you face during negotiations. Do you have any other obstacles in mind?

Harriet Mackaill-Hill - An important barrier, in addition to the ones I've mentioned, is the lack of awareness of the climate-security nexus. We are still a small bubble pushing for change, but outside this bubble, our topic is not well understood. Many civil society groups, policymakers, and experts are unaware of the need for peace and social cohesion to implement meaningful adaptation. Thus, a significant part of our work is raising awareness, such as defining what conflict sensitivity means and emphasizing the co-benefits of adopting more conflict-sensitive climate actions.

Many civil society groups, policymakers, and experts are unaware of the need for peace and social cohesion to implement meaningful adaptation.

Gabriel Lagrange - You mentioned earlier that climate security is not part of the formal agenda. How have the COPs integrated climate security in their discussions so far?

Harriet Mackaill-Hill - COPs are made up of several tracks and agendas. There's the official UNFCCC agenda on mitigation, adaptation, just transition, etc. Then, the presidency chairing the COP can introduce various initiatives, and this is how peace-related discussions emerged.

For example, the Egyptian presidency launched the "Climate Response for Sustaining Peace Initiative" (CRSP) at COP27 in 2022. This helped build momentum that was carried into COP28, which featured the first-ever "Peace Day." This event resulted in the Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery, and Peace, emphasizing the urgent need to support finance for conflict-affected settings. While this was a good first step, it remains a non-binding declaration.

Looking ahead, COP29 will also feature a Peace Day on November 15th, during which the Baku Call and Baku Hub will be launched. We hope these initiatives will sustain momentum toward COP30.

Gabriel Lagrange - Could you give us more details and perspectives on the discussions around the Declaration?

Harriet Mackaill-Hill - The language of the Declaration is strong. It was developed in consultation with civil society, particularly from humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding sectors. Including more input from the climate sector might have been fruitful for increasing understanding of how climate contributes to conflicts.

Discussions around the Declaration began early, in February 2023, four months after COP27. The text evolved over time until the final version was launched on Peace Day at COP28 in Dubai. Earlier in October, many organizations involved in this work met at the Berlin Climate Security Conference. They agreed that the Declaration provides a strong basis for discussions and political leverage with signatory states, enabling calls for concrete implementation and follow-up.

Despite this progress, the Declaration lacks an accountability mechanism, and the next step will be moving from pledges to action.

Gabriel Lagrange - You have led the COP29 Peace group and published a policy paper in early October. What are your demands and recommendations for COP29?

Harriet Mackaill-Hill - From International Alert's perspective, our main focus is on climate finance and ensuring good adaptation in fragile and conflict-affected settings. We emphasize the quality of finance over the quantity, while still supporting the call for trillions in climate finance.

For instance, we advocate for balancing adaptation and mitigation finance and integrating conflict sensitivity into these discussions. This is also reflected in the PeaceAtCOP community's policy paper, which covers topics such as loss and damage, the green transition, and their intersection with conflict.

Gabriel Lagrange - What are your expectations for COP29? What would a successful COP29 look like on the climate and conflict issue?

Harriet Mackaill-Hill - First and foremost, we want to keep the momentum going. The Baku Call and Baku Hub are essential for this.

We also hope to see acknowledgment of finance gaps in conflict-affected states within the main negotiation tracks. Addressing the quality of finance and debt issues is another key point, especially since half of the finance channeled to conflict-affected countries comes as loans.

We also hope to see acknowledgment of finance gaps in conflict-affected states within the main negotiation tracks.

Finally, beyond negotiations, COPs are huge networking events. To increase discussions on conflict and peace, it's key to engage with as many stakeholders as possible.